Brownwood and Kinky Friedman: Are you one of the 71 % ?

Carolyn Barta: What are the odds ?

Only one thing's for sure in the Texas governor's race. All bets are off.
11:18 AM CST on Friday, February 10, 2006

Kinky Friedman and Carole Keeton Strayhorn have become hot properties on national TV, but Texans have a different reason for paying attention to these independent candidates for governor.
Kinky was on CBS' 60 Minutes and NBC's Tonight Show late last month just because he's Kinky – the offbeat cowboy- musician-writer-jokester who makes outrageous comments. Ms. Strayhorn was on Chris Matthews' Hardball on MSNBC because her son is press secretary to the president and she has separated from the Republican Party that elected her comptroller.Texans, however, ought to be taking notice of them because they change the whole equation for a governor's election.
Assuming these independents get on the ballot with a Democrat and Republican, Texas could elect a governor who gets as little as 35 percent of the vote in November. Winning by a plurality opens the door for any one of them.
The question is: Can either of the independents muster that much? If not, which major party candidate is helped by their presence?
One Tough Grandma starts out as the candidate of Democratic despair. A Democrat-turned-Republican, she's drawn money from big Demo donors. Meanwhile, Mr. Friedman has raised more than the two major Demo candidates for governor, Chris Bell and Bob Gammage.
But winning as an independent is a mountain climb. To get on the ballot, candidates must gather valid signatures of 45,000-plus registered voters who didn't vote in either the Republican or Democrat primary and do it in a 60-day window after the March 7 primaries. While Ms. Strayhorn has more dough, Kinky has the head start on organization for the petition drive.
Despite the money drain, some Democrats aren't resigned to an also-ran position. A memo sent out by Democratic consultant Dean Rindy of Austin paints a scenario where a Democrat could be elected. Here's the math:
In 1992, the elder George Bush carried Texas with 41 percent; Democrat Bill Clinton got 38 percent, and independent Ross Perot 22 percent. As Mr. Rindy sees it, 38 percent is a conservative indicator of the Democratic base vote. John Kerry got 38.2 percent in the 2004 presidential election; Al Gore got 38 percent in 2000.
In non-presidential years, Democrats have done better. In 2002, Tony Sanchez got 40 percent in the governor's election, John Sharp drew 46 percent for lieutenant governor, and Ron Kirk got 43.6 percent for U.S. Senate.
This Democratic plan is that Ms. Strayhorn sucks the air out of Kinky and emerges as the "serious" alternative candidate, which is a pretty good bet.
As an independent and not a Republican primary candidate, she has 10 months instead of two to attack Rick Perry as an ineffective governor.
She increases Mr. Perry's vulnerability, and he returns the attack. They bloody each other, while the Democrat holds his base and picks up some votes in the disillusioned center. Turnout is depressed by a nasty campaign, and the Democrat slides in.
It's an optimistic scenario, and to make it work, Democrats have to convince voters in the final days that the Democrat is more viable than the independent and raise some big money.
Another scenario is that Ms. Strayhorn straddles the line to reach out to both sides and turns off voters with nonresponsive answers on some issues, as she recently did on abortion. Meanwhile, Mr. Friedman takes weird, nonideological, independent positions – such as endorsing both prayer in schools and gay marriage – appealing to the 71 percent who didn't vote in the last governor's race and attracting young people and "crazy rednecks," as his campaign manager says.
Though possible, a win is a long shot for either of the independents. They could just cancel each other out.
Finally, even hopeful Democrats have to admit that a four-person race makes it possible for Mr. Perry to win with only 40 or 45 percent. All he has to do is maintain his base and trust that the turnout will not be depressed or pumped up by a bunch of nontraditional voters.
It's a race that bears watching – and not just for its oddity and entertainment value.
Carolyn Barta, a former political reporter and columnist, teaches journalism at Southern Methodist University and is author of a book on the 1992 Perot campaign for president. Her e-mail address is cbarta@mail.smu
Gov. Rick Perry
In a four-way race, the Republican incumbent could win with only 40 percent of the vote.
Kinky Friedman
The independent may appeal to the 71 percent who didn't vote in the last governor's race.
Carole Keeton Strayhorn
The independent is likely to emerge as the "serious alternative."
Chris Bell and Bob Gammage
Democrats are hoping a nasty Strayhorn-Perry campaign will send voters their way.

source: http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/opinion/viewpoints/stories/DN-barta_10edi.ART.State.Edition1.117d9e03.html