"When you have Republicans doing what Democrats used to do,which is tax us to death and spend money like drunken sailors,you know you've got trouble."

Posted on Tue, Sep. 05, 2006

Perry is still the one to beat
By JOHN MORITZ
STAR-TELEGRAM AUSTIN BUREAU

AUSTIN -- The 2006 governor's race kicked off in earnest this Labor Day weekend with polls showing that only about 35 percent of Texans want the incumbent re-elected. He's under attack from his three main rivals, and rumblings of discontent are bubbling up from one of his most loyal constituencies.
Yet political analysts and observers predict that Republican Gov. Rick Perry will cruise to victory Nov. 7, which will put him on the path to become the longest-serving chief executive in Texas history and perhaps even in the running for the second spot on the GOP national ticket in 2008.
What gives?
Perry, a former state lawmaker from Haskell County who has served in three statewide offices, is running for his second full term against a field so crowded that his opposition has fragmented. The winning candidate doesn't need an outright majority of the votes, just more than any other candidate.
State Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, a Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-independent, is hammering away at his plan for a $184 billion network of toll roads and rail lines that would be run in large part by a Spanish firm. Democrat Chris Bell, a little-known one-term ex-congressman from Houston, has devoted much of his recent effort to highlighting the deterioration of the state park system during Perry's administration.
Kinky Friedman, the offbeat country songwriter and mystery novelist who's also running as an independent, chants "never re-elect anybody" as part of his campaign mantra and faults what he calls the professional politicians for failing to promote issues such as alternative energy production and publicly financed political campaigns.
All three have criticized Perry for taking more than five years to overhaul the state's unconstitutional school finance system and have picked apart the plan that he guided through the Legislature last spring on grounds that it overlooked schoolchildren, short-changed teachers or double-crossed taxpayers.
Libertarian candidate James Werner scarcely mentions his rivals while waging a low-key campaign calling for smaller government and lower taxes.
'Hard to beat'
"There's no doubt that Perry has left himself open to criticism," said political analyst Harvey Kronberg, publisher of the online newsletter Quorum Report. "But no one has yet to make a positive case for themselves as the one voters should replace him with. As it stands right now, he's going to be hard to beat."
The challengers discount such assertions.
In her campaign appearances and stump speeches, Strayhorn insists that by fall, voters will be faced with a choice between her and Perry. Each has won several statewide races dating back to the 1990s, and they have far more money in their campaign accounts than do Bell and Friedman. She has about $8 million; Perry has about $10 million.
"This is clearly a two-person race," she said last month.
Bell, who is making his first bid for statewide office, said recent polls show the momentum swinging his way. A Zogby Interactive Poll released last week shows him in second place, though 12 points behind Perry and just a fraction of a percentage point ahead of Friedman.
"As we become better known, people are starting to come to us," Bell said Friday. "There's an 'anybody but Perry' sentiment out there that will finally consolidate around one candidate, and I think it will be me."
Friedman, a political novice whose campaign was launched by way of his now-suspended column in Texas Monthly magazine, is reaching out to Texans who either had never bothered to vote or have become disillusioned with politics as usual.
"It's a two-way race -- between me and apathy," Friedman has said, adding that if disaffected voters turn out, "I'll win in a landslide."
Perry, who succeeded George W. Bush as governor in December 2000 and was elected in his own right in 2002, has dismissed the cacophony of criticism from his opponents as "white noise in the background." Robert Black, his campaign spokesman, said the governor is running on a record of job creation, education improvement and fiscal conservatism.
"Texans need to look at the economy of this state -- 630,000 new jobs in three years," Black said. "Student test scores are exceeding the national average. If Texans are asked, are they better off than they were four years ago, we're confident in their answer."
Dissension in the ranks
But not everyone in the Republican camp is so sure.
Steve Hotze, a Houston physician and a longtime Republican activist, calls 2006 a "disappointing" election year. Hotze is among a band of Republicans who said Perry sold out the conservative movement by embracing a new tax on business to make up for cuts in local property taxes for financing public schools.
"The Republicans have foisted upon Texas the largest tax increase in the state's history," Hotze said. "I don't know how that will play out in the fall, but we've all seen the polls. Gov. Perry is not strong."
Hotze, who first became active in politics in 1976, says that he'll watch the race from the sidelines for the first time in 30 years.
"I'm staying out of it," he said. "When you have Republicans doing what Democrats used to do, which is tax us to death and spend money like drunken sailors, you know you've got trouble."
Black disputed the characterization, saying most Republicans and even some Democrats and independents will give Perry credit for solving the education finance crisis before the courts shut down the schools. The package, he said, is designed to lower property taxes by one-third over two years and give all teachers at least a $2,000-per-year pay raise.
Friedman called the school finance plan "a court-ordered crumb" for teachers and schoolchildren. And like Strayhorn and Bell, he has called for substantially higher pay for teachers.
Strayhorn's attacks on Perry have probably been the harshest among the challengers. And Perry's camp has largely concentrated its fire on the comptroller.
Here's a sample of the back-and-forth salvos: Strayhorn calls Perry a "do-nothing drugstore cowboy" whose Trans Texas Corridor plan "is the biggest land grab in the history of the state." The Perry campaign's Web site features five slams at Strayhorn, calling her transportation plan "bad science fiction" and suggesting that she has granted her campaign contributors special favors in tax disputes with the state.
Strayhorn strenuously denies any improprieties.
Bell predicted that the strident tone will harm both camps and help him. But first he must win back some of the Democratic supporters who drifted to Strayhorn early in the campaign.
Into the homestretch
Fred Baron, a Dallas lawyer and a frequent contributor to Democratic candidates and causes, was among several Texas trial lawyers who gave money to Strayhorn when it appeared that no strong Democrat would step forward to challenge Perry.
But this month, Baron sent Bell a check for $25,000 and said he hopes the Democrat can put forth a positive message heading into the home stretch of the campaign.
"Chris is a very competent guy, and he'd make a good governor," said Baron, who last year gave $12,500 to Strayhorn. "He's been terribly underfunded, and that's a shame."
Friedman is maintaining his nontraditional approach. He's tapped laid-back pop singer Jimmy Buffett to host a benefit concert in Austin this month. It's already sold out. And two weeks ago he unveiled a plan to develop nontraditional energy resources such as biodiesel fuel and wind power to cut pollution and decrease the need for imported oil.
"Today, our capacity to generate energy from wind, solar and biofuel sources is 400 times greater than the amount we're currently using," Friedman said. "Renewable energy sources can be found in every corner of the Lone Star State. Why aren't we tapping into them?"
Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, said that it will be tough for any of the challengers to burst from the pack unless Perry stumbles from the weight of the attacks against him.
"I think Perry is the prohibitive favorite right now," Jillson said. "As a Republican incumbent in the reddest of states with an unlimited war chest, I just don't see how he gets beat. The only interesting question is who comes in second."

Rick Perry

Age: 56

Party: Republican

Incumbent

Web site: www.rickperry.org

Keys to victory: Hold on to the Republicans' base by running strong in the suburbs and minimizing defections in rural Texas by voters who might oppose his $184 billion Trans Texas Corridor, which is expected to gobble up tens of thousands of undeveloped acres.

Chris Bell

Age: 46

Party: Democrat

Former congressman

Web site: www.chrisbell.com

Keys to victory: Win back Democrats who may be siding with one of the independent candidates and maximize turnout in heavily Democratic urban areas, especially in Harris County, where he is well-known from his service as a congressman and a Houston City Council member.

Carole Keeton Strayhorn

Age: 66

Party: Independent

State comptroller

Web site: www.carolestrayhorn.com

Keys to victory: Form a coalition of moderate Republicans, disaffected Democrats and independents with special emphasis on rural Texas, which may be distrustful of the proposed Trans Texas Corridor.

Kinky Friedman

Age: 61

Party: Independent

Entertainer and author

Web site: www.kinkyfriedman.com

Keys to victory: Corral voters disillusioned with the major political parties and appeal to Texans with little or no history of voting.

John Moritz, 512-476-4294 jmoritz@star-telegram.com

source: http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/15442084.htm